Welcome to my investment blog where I share with you my analysis of REITs in Singapore.

I hope that my investment philosophy will bring me a steady stream of income apart from my job. I am aiming for at least $3,000 per month which can sustain the current expenses of myself and my family.

Do enjoy reading my blog and post any comments that you have. I welcome them because it is a time to learn from each other.

When I am looking at investing in REIT, here are some of the guidelines that I am looking at. Feel free to comment on it. I am willing to listen to ideas.

-> at least 8% yield.
-> Price that is lower than its NAV.
-> Low gearing (if possible)
-> High secured NAV.

Current Dividend income is $3,800/month.

Saturday, December 15, 2018

It has been a while... My portfolio after the broad-based drop and a whammy from Asian Pay Television Trust.

It has been a while since I write a blog here and I must admit that I am too busy with my own things to continue to analyze and keep up with my investments. Thus, I was very late in realizing that the market and therefore my portfolio has fallen by quite a lot which emotionally I was very sad.

Moreover, I was hard hit by the sudden drop of Asian Pay Television Trust which has hit me really hard. Together with the broad-based correction of the market, the hard work that I have painstakingly built up, dividends and the profits were all returned back to the market. To think back, there were tell tale signs in the beginning but I have foolishly ignored them. Anyway, I have sold them, believing that it will not recover back to the previous levels based on current metrics.

One thing that I have learnt is that investing can't be passive as what I have always believed. When I am doing well is because of close monitoring, able to pick up signals early and act on them. It may not be a full-time job, but it is never passive. Thus, my lesson is that I need to be a lot more active, alert even in the midst of busyness, continue to update this blog which tracks how closely I am monitoring. (That's is how I check myself).

Anyway, this is my portfolio as of now. Not nice and pleasant to see if you compare it with my previous postings. But just thankful that not all is gone. Starting all over again, with a bit of caution, and a bit of fear.

Wednesday, July 18, 2018

Analysis of Dasin Retail Trust - An Anchor investment for me

Current Price on 17th Jul 2018 = $0.865

  • Yield = 8.46%  
  • Price-to-book Ratio = 0.554
  • Assets per unit = $3.005
  • Debt per unit = $1.443 (including current liabilities)
  • Gearing = 48.0%

Dasin Retail Trust is one of my closely-watched counter. It is also one of my anchor investments which I have gained much from it. I have recently purchased another 40,000 shares at $0.865 sometime last month. Let's take a look at the staitistics.

With the current yield of 8.64%, it is one of the highest yielding REIT in SGX. However, LippoMalls Retail Trust and Sasseur REIT are trading at a higher yield. What is attractive is that concurrently it is trading at price-to-book value of 0.554 which means we are buying at 45% discount to its valuation. This provides some form of margin of safety for investors. Gearing is also at a high of 48.0%.

With the recent purchase, I am vested with 120,000 shares, enjoying an annual dividend of $8,700 which probably can pay for my car instalment. :-) I am still holding on to it and enjoying it.

Wednesday, July 11, 2018

Analysis of Far East Hospitality Trust - Recent drop makes it attractive

Price on 10th July 2018 = $0.625
  • Yield = 6.02%  
  • Price-to-book Ratio = 0.718
  • Assets per unit = $1.417
  • Debt per unit = $0.546 (including current liabilities and perpetual securities)
  • Gearing =  38.5%

Far East Hospitality Trust has dropped quite a lot recently. To be frank, I was queueing to sell at $0.655 last month but did not make it. Wasn't reactive enough to sell it quicker at a lower price so I am still holding on to about 103,000 shares. Before I make the next move, let's take a look at the statistics.

With a 6.02% yield, it is not attractive at all. This is probably my lowest yielding investments in my portfolio currently. What makes it attractive is its price-to-book ratio which is at 0.718. It means we are buying at almost a 30% discount. This is quite rare considering that all their properties are based in Singapore. Gearing is at a healthy 38.5%.

It has fallen from a high of $0.775 in the beginning of the year and I really regret not selling earlier. I was persuaded by the project that they are embarking on, the recent acquisition that they had which led me to believe that their distributions will be on the increase. However, I don't think I am right in this sense and the wait is longer than I expected.

Having said that, $0.625 pricing is already quite low and its price-to-book ratio is already very low as well. I am continuing to hold on to this, and hold on to my previous belief as well, until a better opportunity arrives.

Thursday, June 21, 2018

Analysis of Hutchison Port Holdings Trust

Price on 20th June 2018 = $0.39
  • Yield = 8.58%  
  • Price-to-book Ratio = 0.465
  • Assets per unit = $1.578
  • Debt per unit = $0.717 (including current liabilities and perpetual securities)
  • Gearing =  45.5%

Hutchison Port Holding Trust recently has a meltdown in their price which pushes up the yield and makes it more attractive for investment. Let's take a look at the statistics first.

With a yield of 8.58%, it is definitely attractive now considering that it is not easy to get such a yield in the REIT market. Moreover, it was trading at around 6% last year which means people are willing to pay for such a premium given a good market. Its price-to-book ratio is 0.465 which means we are buying at less than half the value. Gearing is at 45.5% which is quite high though.

It is a business trust focusing on port business so it is different from real estate which carries more value even when there is no income. However, HPH Trust holds one of the busiest port and probably important port to the Hong Kong economy as well. It is also operating ports in China. Thus, it is highly reliant to the Chinese economy.

With the high yield and low price-to-book ratio it is worth considering now to invest and I am looking very closely to it. Especially when I am also intending to sell one of my holdings.

Thursday, May 24, 2018

Updating my Portfolio - Adjusting for more stable income although there is higher risk.

Hi everyone,

Here is my update of my portfolio after a series of announcement on their results which I have some issues.

Global Investment Limited

They have made an announcement which I am quite disappointed especially when they cut their dividend to 0.5 cents per half year. Thus, we are looking only at less than 7% yield from a level of over 8% yield. Originally, I do have a holdings of about 1,100,000 shares. Thus, I have reduced my holdings by 500,000 shares so now I am holding on to about 610,000 shares. I sold them at $0.144, netting $72,000 back.

Sabana REIT

At the same time, I used up some of my CPF to purchase Sabana REIT (about 55,000 shares). Their yield is about 8% and they are still trading at a 20% discount to NAV. Thus, I thought that the metrics are good and stable so I purchased at $0.43. Moreover, if they are able to improve their occupancy, it will be greater income for us.

Asian Pay Television Trust

With the $72,000 that I have netted from selling Global Investment Limited, I used some to buy APTT. I notice that their price has fallen by a lot to $0.465 which means their yield is a huge 14%. And they are still trading as a discount to NAV (about 43% discount). Although they are struggling, I felt that it is priced in and the yield is extremely attractive. Thus, I made a 100,000 share purchase at $0.465 to increase my yield.

Thus, with all these adjustments, here is my portfolio.

When Global Investment Limited reduces their payout, my monthly income went down by more than $100 per month. However, after adjusting my portfolio, now my monthly income is close to $5,000 while I have just reduced my Maybank Margin Loan to about $234,000 which is quite comfortable as of now. Moreover, the margin level is still comfortable such that I am still able to withstand a significant drop in value so it is still good for me.

Enjoying the passive income that I am getting.

Monday, May 21, 2018

Analysis of ESR-Viva Merger - Viva Industrial Trust to benefit from it more.

ESR REIT and Viva Industrial Trust has finally announced their merger. To sniff out the details took longer than expected but I hope that my analysis is correct for all of us here. I am holding on to both ESR REIT and Viva Industrial Trust so I am affected both ways.

Merged ESR Price on 18th May 2018 = $0.53
  • Yield = 6.75%  
  • Price-to-book Ratio = 1.034
  • Assets per unit = $0.956
  • Debt per unit = $0.443 (including current liabilities and perpetual securities)
  • Gearing =  46.4%
  • Secured NAV = $0.513 (97% of trading price)

If you look at the announcement on both sides, it seems a win-win situation but I don't think so. Let's take a look at the argument.

While there is an increment of 5.6% in yield to the merged yield of 6.75%, there is at the same time a 10% drop in NAV from $0.584 to $0.513, a loss of about 7 cents per share for ESR REIT unitholders. This is because Viva Industrial Trust has been trading at a premium to NAV, about 15% more based on a price of $0.915, the price which was shown while trading is halted. Moreover, they are buying at $0.96 which is even higher. Thus, it is inevitable that the price-to-NAV would suffer. Whether we are able to accept this is another issue.

As for Viva Industrial Trust unitholders, while they sold their shares to ESR REIT at a 20 cents premium per share from their NAV which is very high, their new yield suffered from 8.03% to 6.75%, a more than 1% drop. Thus, they will be getting close to 20% drop in yield. To be frank, I think this is a smaller loss compared to the original ESR REIT as it is probably about 1.6 cents lesser per year. Moreover, they got to invest in the merged REIT at close to NAV price which is quite good for them. And they are getting 9.6 cents per Viva share for this deal which is a great sweetener and makes the deal attractive.

To be frank, I was expecting the merged yield to be above 7% so that it is good enough for ESR REIT to say yes to the deal. With 6.75%, I don't think the deal is very appealing although it seems fair. They are really banking just on the asset scale and equity scale, with a strong sponsor for the market to re-rate them accordingly to a level that is at least Frasers Logistics and Industrial Trust. However, the yield is quite comparable already although the merged REIT is still cheaper compared to Frasers Logistics and Industrial Trust. For Viva Industrial Trust unitholders, it seems better solely because of the 9.6 cents which ESR REIT is going to pay.

I have about $80,000 in Viva Industrial Trust and $100,000 in ESR REIT and it makes it extremely tricky for me. As a Viva Industrial Trust unitholder, I am satisfied with the premium that I am getting. As an ESR REIT unitholder, it doesn't make a lot of difference to me. I am still in a daze of what I should do especially I participated in the preferential offering at $0.54 and now it is trading below that price. Thus as an merged unitholder, I hope that the re-rating turns out to be true so that there is a chance for me to sell some of my holdings for a profit.

Thursday, May 17, 2018

Analysis of LippoMall Indonesian Trust - Not trusting myself

Current Price on 6th May 2018 = $0.32
  • Yield = 8.38%  
  • Price-to-book Ratio = 1.025
  • Assets per unit = $0.708
  • Debt per unit = $0.396 (including current liabilities and perpetual securities)
  • Gearing = 55.9%
  • Occupancy = 94%
LippoMalls Indonesian Trust is one which is probably the worst performing REIT that I have seen. In my last analysis, I was thinking whether to offload them but did not do it. Thus, I regret my decision or indecision that I have made. Let's take a look at the statistics now.

Yield is at 8.38% which is still quite high compared to other REITs. However, with the recent pull-back, there are REITs which are trading at similar yields. Their valuation is also still low so price-to-book ratio is at 1.025 which means we are buying at a slight premium to their valuation. Gearing, if you include perpetual securities apart from debt, is quite high at 55.9%.

One thing about LMIR is that we are subject to Indonesian regulations and also currency risk, both which work against us this round and it will take a while for LMIR to turn it around. As I have said earlier, I regret not selling earlier and I am holding just to hope that it will continue to hold and move back up. However, looking at the statistics, I still think it is fairly valued and probably there is only value in holding on. I am vested with 30,000 shares, and I am still observing whether I should unload and switch to another counter. I just hope that I am right this time.